" "PREVENTINGDANGEROUS CLIMATE CHANGEWILL REQUIREWORLD EMISSIONSTO BE AT LEASTHALVED FROM1990 LEVELS BY 2050PRE-MEXICO REVIEW117emissions would fall by only 12-18 per cent below1990 levels by 2020. This is well short of the 25-40per cent reduction that the scientific evidence showsis needed for the world to have even a fair chance oflimiting warming to around 2°C. The collective impact of the actions pledged bydeveloping countries is harder to estimate and largeuncertainties remain. It is, therefore, unclear to whatextent they would lead to a 15-30 per cent deviationbelow business as usual levels in 2020 as needed.Since future growth in global emissions is dominatedby the developing world, this is important andpotentially problematic.The future global agreement must also address theserious weaknesses in the Kyoto Protocol's currentarchitecture. If allowed to continue, they couldeffectively lower the emission pledges currently onthe table by as much as 16 per cent, giving at best anemissions cut of just 2 per cent below 1990 levels in2020 and at worst a rise of almost 3 per cent. These weaknesses, which centre on the rules for theaccounting of forestry emissions and the handling ofsurplus national emission rights for the 2008-2012period, have to be closed if the future agreement is tohave environmental integrity. The development of a well-functioning internationalcarbon market remains essential for driving low-carbon investments and reducing global emissionscost-effectively. It also has the potential to generatemajor additional financial flows to developingcountries. In short, there is still much that needs to be done -also this year. In Cancún the EU will continue topress for progress. In Copenhagen leaders said A: wemust stay below 2 degrees. They also said B: yes, wehave a co-responsibility. 2010 must be about partiessaying C: talk must be replaced by action. This year,and Cancún, must show that from now on the focusis on delivering. ncommitted to provide ?7.2 billion over the years2010-2012, or around one-third of the total pledged by developed countries, and in March theEU finance ministers made clear that EU is ready todeliver - now. Reaching a global climate agreement requires strongleadership. I believe the most convincing leadershipthe EU can provide is to take tangible anddetermined action at home to make itself the mostclimate friendly region in the world. AsCommissioner for Climate Action, this is theobjective I have for my five-year mandate. The European Commission that took office thisFebruary has put greener, low-carbon growth at theheart of our strategy for Europe's development overthe coming decade. Our objective is to decoupleEurope's economic growth from resource and energyuse, reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, enhanceour competitiveness, create new jobs and strengthenour energy security. Back in 2007 the EU set an example to the worldthrough our commitment to cut greenhouse gasemissions by 20 per cent and to get 20 per cent ofour energy from renewable sources by 2020. Wehave underpinned our leadership by putting in placelegislation that will help us reach these goals. Andwe have offered to scale up our 2020 emissionsreduction to 30 per cent provided other majoremitters contribute their fair share to a globalmitigation effort. Ambitious targets for 2020 are essential for breakingthe rising trend of global emissions, but they are onlythe first step. Preventing dangerous climate changewill require world emissions to be at least halvedfrom 1990 levels by 2050. The EU recognises thatwe and other industrialised countries will have tocontribute the lion's share of this effort and reduceour emissions by 80-95 per cent over that timescale. That is why the Commission has been examiningpractical options for moving beyond an emissionsreduction of 20 per cent. We are developing ourvision for completing Europe's transition to a low-carbon economy by 2050. This will includescenarios for what needs to be done by 2030. Forinvestors and planners 2020 is just around thecorner. We must now start to look further ahead inorder to take political decisions that can providebusiness and others with the predictability that theyneed.The bottom line for a global deal has to be that itdelivers emission cuts on the scale required to keepthe average temperature rise below 2°C. The pledges for 2020 made by industrialisedcountries to date are clearly not sufficient. CollectiveBIOGRAPHYConnie Hedegaard joined the European Commissionas Commissioner for Climate Action, a new portfolioin 2010. Her ambition is to see Europe become themost climate-friendly region in the world by the endof her five-year mandate.Prior to moving to the Commission, ConnieHedegaard was Denmark's Minister for Climate andEnergy, and before that for Environment. She waselected member of the Danish parliament in 1984at the age of 23, and from 1990 to 2004 sheworked as a journalist and columnist for various TVand print media.
openhagen was a critical first steptowards a post-2012 internationalagreement on climate change. Eventhough we would have liked to achievemore, the Copenhagen Accord includes most of thekey elements of a climate deal. The key challengenow is to bridge the interests of industrialised,emerging economies and developing countries -theOCED is playing a crucial part in this process.With over 110 countries and the European Unionsigned up, including the main emitters with theirtargets or actions, the Copenhagen Accord is animportant breakthrough for collective internationalaction to limit global emissions and to help buildcleaner economies. It represents progress on three keyissues in particular:First, on greenhouse gas mitigation. The targets andactions that countries list in the Accord represent, forthe first time, an internationalisation of actions byboth developed and developing countries. However,more ambitious targets and actions will be needed tolimit the temperature rise to 2°C. OECD analysissuggests that even the most ambitious targetsdeclared by industrialised countries would reducetheir emissions collectively by at most 18 per cent by2020 compared with 1990 levels. This falls short ofthe estimated 25-40 per cent reduction that the IPCCsuggests is needed to stay within the 2°C limit. OECDwill support both developed and developing countriesin identifying potential for stepping-up their emissionreductions, while still growing the economy. Second, on financing climate change, Copenhagengave us an initial commitment by advanced countriesto deliver fast-start finance of US$30 billion for 2010-2012 and a longer-term goal to mobilise US$100billion per year by 2020 from public and privatesources. Governments also committed to create aCopenhagen Green Climate Fund. Making this happenwill be critical to building trust and co-operationbetween developed and developing countries. Butagain, the proof of the pie is in the eating, and fundswill need to be delivered, leveraged and well-used.Third, the agreement includes general principles for themeasurement, reporting and verification of targets,actions and finance - essential elements to ensuretransparency and accountability amongst countries andultimately to ensure that pledges are implemented. There is still considerable work to be done to reach alegally-binding global agreement on climate change.The world is looking to industralised countries, inparticular the G8, to lead the way by taking ambitiousaction. Many OECD countries have put in place or areconsidering cap-and-trade schemes to put a price onMain Picture: Powerplant pollution -nothelping to keep emissionlevels downTHE ROAD TO CANCUN: TOWARDS A SUCCESSFULPOST-2012 INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENT118PRE-MEXICO REVIEWCANGEL GURRÍA, SECRETARY-GENERAL, THE ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMICCO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT (OECD)?