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emissions reductions during the decades after 2020. Another outcome of the UN Copenhagen summit wasthe establishment of a High-Level Advisory Group onClimate Change Financing, under the co-chairmanshipof the prime ministers of Ethiopia and the UK (nowNorway). The advisory group worked on options forgenerating, by 2020, US$100 billion per year fromdeveloped to developing countries to support bothclimate adaptation and emissions reduction measures,including both public and private resources. It hasprepared clear and promising possibilities. At the same time, progress is being made on the structure of action for preserving and plantingforests, with a constructive set of meetings of theREDD+ partnership this year instigated by France andNorway with leadership now taken up by Papa NewGuinea and Japan with participation from keyrainforest nations. Corresponding mechanisms areurgently required for developing and sharingtechnology and for the objective measurement ofemissions by countries. high-carbon growth is likely to kill itself on the veryhostile environment it would create.The power of examples is crucial and it is richcountries, with their greater wealth and technologies,that should take a lead in offering them. Practicaldemonstrations of what is possible will be fundamentalto generating change. There are already a range of technologies evolving each with diminishing capital and operating costs as experience inducesinnovation and learning. These include solar cells,more efficient high-voltage DC grids (which reduce the costs of electricity transmission from widelydistributed renewable energy sources), high capacityand more efficient batteries, smarter integrated cities(which can drastically reduce energy, heating andtransport emissions), and ways to capture and storecarbon (from end-of-pipe technologies to buildingmaterials, plants and bacteria that draw carbon out ofthe atmosphere). Sustaining this technological revolution will requireclear and long-term global policy. Although the UnitedNations climate change conference in Copenhagenlast December was disappointing, it did makeimportant steps towards global agreement. TheCopenhagen Accord put forward by Brazil, China,India, South Africa, and the US has provided a basisfor discussions about co-ordinated and coherentinternational action. It has its fragilities, and theprocess of building agreement will not be easy, butfurther progress has been made through 2010. TheAccord recognises that climate policies should seek tolimit the rise in global average temperature to no morethan 2°C above preindustrial levels. Analysis at the Grantham Research Institute onClimate Change and the Environment at the LondonSchool of Economics showed that in order to have areasonable, or 50 per cent, chance of reaching the 2°Cgoal, global annual emissions of greenhouse gasesshould be reduced from about 47 billion metric tonnesof carbon-dioxide-equivalent today to about 44 billionmetric tonnes in 2020, to much less than 35 billionmetric tonnes in 2030, and to much less than 20billion metric tonnes in 2050. So far, 75 developed and developing countries,collectively responsible for more than 80 per cent ofcurrent annual global emissions of greenhouse gases,have submitted targets and intended actions that arenow listed in the appendices of the Accord. If countriesdeliver their "high intention" reductions, the planssubmitted to the Copenhagen Accord would result inglobal annual emissions of about 48 billion metrictonnes of carbon-dioxide-equivalent by 2020. Whilethis would imply that emissions would peak before2020, it would nevertheless fall short of a "climateresponsible" target of 44 billion metric tonnes. Thiscould still - at a stretch - be consistent with a 2°C goal,but would involve more rapid and costly annual024GLOBAL VOICESBelow:Dimitri Zenghelis,Senior Economic Advisor,Long Term InnovationGroup, Cisco (left) andProfessor Lord NicholasStern, London School ofEconomics (right)

consistent with a safe climate. At the same time,society continues to lock into high-carboninfrastructure that has a long lifespan. There is morescientific work to do, and many uncertainties are likelyto remain, but the evidence is already clear that therisks are large and that delay will be dangerous. Some of the building blocks for a sensible politicalagreement are being put in place for the next meetingof the parties to the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change in Cancún at the end of this year. Sound analysis, visionary leadership,and a collaborative spirit can quickly reduce theimmense risks we are facing. Furthermore, they could chart the way to three or four decades ofinnovations and entrepreneurial creativity, laying thefoundations for a more sustainable, creative, andequitable world. nABOUT THE AUTHORSLord Stern of Brentford, Kt, FBA is IG Patel Professorof Economics and Government at the London Schoolof Economics (LSE), where he is also head of theIndia Observatory within LSE's Asia Research Centre,and Chairman of the Grantham Research Institute onClimate Change and the Environment. Previously,having held academic posts at the Universities ofOxford and Warwick and the LSE, he was ChiefEconomist for the European Bank for Reconstructionand Development and subsequently Chief Economistand Senior VP at the World Bank. In 2005, he wasappointed by the UK government to conduct theinfluential Stern Review, which analysed theeconomics of climate change. He has published more than 15 books and 100articles. "A Blueprint for a Safer Planet" waspublished by Random House in April 2009. He wasknighted for services to economics in 2004 and madea cross-bench life peer as Baron Stern of Brentford in 2007.Dimitri Zenghelis is Senior Economic Advisor toCisco's Long Term Innovation Group. Previously, heheaded the Stern Review Team at the Office ofClimate Change, London, and was a senior economistworking with Lord Stern on the Stern Review on theEconomics of Climate Change, commissioned by thethen Chancellor Gordon Brown. He continues to act as an advisor to the UKGovernment and Lord Stern at the LSE where he is aSenior Visiting Fellow at the Grantham ResearchInstitute. He is an Associate Fellow at the RoyalInstitute of International Affairs (Chatham House).Dimitri was Head of Economic Forecasting and Headof Macroeconomic Analysis and Projects at HMTreasury from 1999 to 2007.GLOBAL VOICES025""WE HAVE LOSTCRITICAL DECADESIN WHICH WECOULD HAVETAKEN SERIOUSACTION BUT DIDNOT, BECAUSE OFA LACK OF PUBLICCONSENSUSThese actions are welcome, but there is stillinsufficient recognition of the magnitude of thechallenge and the risks of delay. The world must emitan average of less than two metric tonnes per capita ofcarbon-dioxide-equivalent by 2050 if it is to have areasonable chance of limiting temperature increases to2ºC. The current average is about seven tonnes percapita, with the United States averaging more thantwenty metric tonnes, Europe ten to twelve metrictonnes, China around seven metric tonnes, India lessthan two metric tonnes. Yet such change is possible.Backed by popular support and strong leadership, thetransition could drive innovation and creativity,generating technological innovation and substantiallyimproved well-being. We have lost critical decades in which we could havetaken serious action but did not, because of a lack ofpublic consensus. The stock of greenhouse gases isrising at an increasing rate. For every year in whichaction is not taken, more work will be required toreduce greenhouse-gas concentrations to a level